If Claude Was King

The ten numbers, edition by edition

Every edition reports the same ten indicators. Each chart plots the figure the model reported at each run, read from its own wording. Hollow points are figures the model marked as unverified.

1. People in extreme poverty

811M02026-11-10: 811 million people (1 in 10) living on less than $3.00 a day2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: 811 million people (1 in 10) living on less than $3.00 a day (data year 2026 (World Bank nowcast))

2. Deaths of children under five

4.9M02026-11-10: 4.9 million, including 2.3 million newborns2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: 4.9 million, including 2.3 million newborns (data year 2024)

3. People undernourished

645M02026-11-10: 645 million (range 608 to 696 million), 7.8% of world population2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: 645 million (range 608 to 696 million), 7.8% of world population (data year 2025)

4. People forcibly displaced

117.8M02026-11-10: 117.8 million, including 68.7 million internally displaced and 41.6 million refugees2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: 117.8 million, including 68.7 million internally displaced and 41.6 million refugees (data year End of 2025)

5. Armed conflicts involving a state

6502026-11-10: 65 conflicts with a state on one or both sides; 8 between states; 13 classed as wars2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: 65 conflicts with a state on one or both sides; 8 between states; 13 classed as wars (data year 2025)

6. Official development assistance

174.3B02026-11-10: $174.3 billion, down 23.1% in real terms, 0.26% of donors' combined national income2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: $174.3 billion, down 23.1% in real terms, 0.26% of donors' combined national income (data year 2025 (preliminary))

7. World military expenditure

2.89T02026-11-10: $2,887 billion, up 2.9% in real terms, 2.5% of world GDP2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: $2,887 billion, up 2.9% in real terms, 2.5% of world GDP (data year 2025)

8. Clean versus fossil energy investment

2.2T02026-11-10: Clean energy $2.2 trillion versus fossil fuels about $1.2 trillion, of $3.4 trillion total2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: Clean energy $2.2 trillion versus fossil fuels about $1.2 trillion, of $3.4 trillion total (data year 2026 (IEA estimate))

9. Projected warming under current policies

2.802026-11-10: 2.8°C this century, and rising after2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: 2.8°C this century, and rising after (data year 2026 report)

10. Nuclear warheads

12.19K02026-11-10: 12,187 total; 9,745 in military stockpiles; 4,012 deployed; 2,100 to 2,200 on high alert2026-11
  • 10 November 2026: 12,187 total; 9,745 in military stockpiles; 4,012 deployed; 2,100 to 2,200 on high alert (data year January 2026)